Bitcoin

Note that the following is educational material only. It is factual but it is not financial advice.

UPDATED FOR 2024

Since writing the educational content below (all still valid btw), I have identified the following two excellent videos. I recommend you take the time to listen to them.

BITCOIN? ISN’T IT REALLY VOLATILE?

Yes. So hold 10% – 25% of your long term savings in it. You’ll sleep better and not be checking your smartphone every five minutes.

When fiat money (£ and $) goes down in value, it’s forever.

When Bitcoin money goes down in value, it’s temporary.

This TradingView chart shows the price performance of bitcoin in dollar terms, since 2012. This is the “penny drop” moment where you likely become a bitcoiner….

bitcoin price (log scale) since 2012

As you can see, timing is KEY to increasing your wealth using bitcoin. Get in near the pi-cycle low indicator, and get out on the pi-cycle high. Get back in on the next pi-cycle low. You’ll accumulate bitcoin AND wealth in fiat currency terms this way. Few will ever tell you this. It’s a secret. But know you know. You have the advantage of less than 1%. You’re welcome.

When everyone is talking about it, it’s likely too late, this cycle. Wait until the bitcoin price is back on that floor/previous ATH price before starting to DCA in. Google ATH and DCA. Get used to doing your own work – do not rely on opinions or work of others to make you rich. Never gonna happen, or NGMI as the bitcoiners say. Google that too.

NOW EDUCATE YOURSELF

Read the following four articles at Bitcoin Magazine…

The Dimensions of Money

What Bitcoin does that changes the World

The Fundamentals of How Bitcoin Works

The Monetary properties of Bitcoin

Read Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin Whitepaper here and more bitcoin educational material here at hope.com.

Follow my regular bitcoin price chart technical analysis on twitter here. My twitter feed is ruthlessly based on purpose. There is no place for emotions, self righteousness or imaginary virtue gained from following the flock or being obedient to the latest narrative here. If you’re easily offended, well that’s on you. Park your fragile ego and engage your intellect. Learn about the left and right side of your brain and understand how your reactive emotional responses hurt you, empower me and how propaganda overcomes your sense by targeting them. I digress.

“TRADING IS A MISTAKE”

If you decide to trade Bitcoin in the hope of making money, you will be competing against AI so good luck with that. At the very least, you should know these candlestick patterns.

If you make money don’t fool yourself. You got lucky. That was gambling. Trade with 10% of your overall bag. HODL the rest on a Ledger hardware wallet. Dont stake or earn on it in custodial platforms. 2022 was a disaster in this respect as the bear market bit hard sending what were ultimately fractional reserve crypto banks into chapter 11 bankruptcy. You will loose less bitcoin hodling it. You will loose none.

“BETTER GAINS IN THE ALTCOINS”

Propaganda is everywhere, and now it’s backed by convincing evidence in the short timeframe. One only needs a short timeframe to hijack your attention. There is a war for your attention. Do not take your world view from the man on the television or the faceless journo who wrote the newspaper article you just read. They use trigger phrases and neural linguistic programming techniques to hijack your emotional response since it’s that part of you that will re-share their propaganda and spread it. Use your analytical brain. Not your emotional brain.

This chart shows you how 2400+ altcoins ultimately collapsed by 2020 while bitcoin soars overhead. Facts not Propaganda.

Bitcoin vs Alts. Bitcoin wins. Long Term.

“NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE”

My advice, if I were to give it, would be to study the links above until you’re confident you have an unbreakable belief in the value of storing a sensible proportion of your long term savings in a deflationary monetary network for at least 4 years, irrespective of perceptible volatility.

THE RULES ARE SIMPLE

Volatility is the price we pay for performance.

Nobody ever lost money in Bitcoin over four years, who didn’t sell.

Bitcoin accrues value at an average rate of 170% per annum since it’s inception.

Buy, HODL, Buy dips in price, HODL. Never sell if the NUPL is under 75% or the Pi-Cycle High indicator hasn’t flashed on the weekly chart.

Go look up what NUPL means. 😉

ACCUMULATION OF BITCOIN DURING BEAR MARKETS

You’ll be competing against AI when trading. You won’t win. Just like Lee Sedol lost his games of Go when playing Googles AlphaGo, you’ll lose money. Understand what AI is. In summary, you can be better than somebody else but you can’t be better than everybody else.

If you want to take the edge of the emotions of the bearish cycles, then stabilise your bitcoin to USDC during the red weeks on this chart I made for you.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/YGk6NyuP-The-Only-Bitcoin-Chart-You-Need/

Listen to Robert Breedlove. He knows.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92bV4KxtIBM

My bitcoin trading chart with technical analysis indicators to predict future price movement.

Money in the bank is melting in terms of its buying power. 2020 has been no joke and things are only going to get worse from here. Negative interest rates in the banks incoming. How can you protect the buying power of your liquid wealth over time? Bitcoin.

Be sceptical. Do your own research. But buy some. Some. Less than 10% of your liquid savings. Once you have skin in the game, you’ll be panicked into doing your own due diligence. Don’t be wrong about not getting into bitcoin. It could be the biggest mistake you ever make.

The first things you need to know before investing in bitcoin or the wider cryptocurrency market. I recommend using crypto.com to buy and custody your bitcoin for you, until you are expert enough to custody it yourself using a hardware wallet. Both are apps on the Apple/Play Store. Never respond to bitcoin investment related emails.

What have I learned in 4 years? A hell of a lot. Luckily for you I can summarise it in one single sentence. “Buy Bitcoin, hold onto it, never sell it, no matter what.”. Had I done JUST that, I’d have more bitcoin today that I currently have. A lot more actually. Learn from my mistakes. It’s simple. Buy it. HODL it. Don’t over trade. Don’t chase price pumps. Don’t buy what you haven’t researched. Coinbureau is a good source of info on many alternative cryptocurrencies. You can use Coinbase and CoinGecko to analyse their price performance over time and LunarCrush to gauge project activity and social media sentiment. Be aware that altcoins price movement is based almost entirely on ideology and sentiment. Bitcoin is the only proven cryptocurrency and blockchain.

The best 2hrs you’ll ever spend. The penny will drop after listening to ALL of this.

Some numbers for you….

Bitcoin has on average gone up 70% per year for 13 years.

Bitcoin Stock to Flow ratio over 10 years on a logarithmic price scale:

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/stock-to-flow-model/

Bitcoin Rainbow Chart (same as above but useful for timing entry and exit into bitcoin)

https://www.blockchaincenter.net/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/

Bitcoin Stock to Flow Cross Asset Spiral

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1464595608417628168/photo/1

Cryptocurrency is extremely volatile in short time frames.  You should be extremely careful outside of holding 80% BTC, in your portfolio. 

By holding bitcoin, you are changing from a 100% allocation in a stable inflationary asset controlled by banks and governments to a part allocation in a volatile, deflationary asset controlled by nobody but the open market as a means of protecting your money from inflation. Michael Saylor and Elon Musk famously did this in 2020 and 2021 to protect their business balance sheets from losing buying power faster than their businesses could generate revenues, each buying 400 million dollars and one and a half billion dollars in bitcoin respectively.

There will only ever be 21 million bitcoins, 18.6 of which are already in circulation, so less than 2 million left to be minted by the network. There are over 40 million millionaires on the planet whose money is melting due to unprecedented quantitative easing and the centuries-old-solution to inflation (Gold) has not performed it’s role, probably due to provable price manipulation. The supply and demand forecast for bitcoin is insane.

Despite it’s volatility, Bitcoins higher and higher “lows” have proven it to have asymmetric upside potential and a fine store of value if held for a long time frame of at least 4 or 5 years. That said, buying a market top because you heard about it in the mainstream media will likely see nothing but 3 years of downside price movement thereafter.

Trust no one!

You can follow me @cyberfellabtc on twitter for regular technical analysis of bitcoin and other fun, contrarian-thinking content. As Michael Saylor says: “It’s not conviction, it’s thinking for YOURSELF.”